風險自選投資組合 Powered by BlackRock® | 2025 年 5 月前瞻調倉報告

BlackRock 最新市場概況及影響（僅提供英文版）

Global equity markets have experienced heightened volatility so far in 2025. Markets shifted from the narrative of US exceptionalism at the beginning of the year to a more risk-off stance, before paring back some losses by the end of April.

US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs on a large number of countries worldwide triggered a global market rout. Subsequently, a 90-day pause on most countries (except for China) was announced, providing some relief to risk assets. The S&P 500 initially fell from its February peak following the tariff announcement on 2 April. Despite staging a modest recovery later in April, the index still ended the period down. 

European and Asian markets proved relatively more resilient and recorded gains. Germany’s fiscal package stimulus and higher defense spending plans, along with the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the US, provided a tailwind for European equities.

After experiencing a DeepSeek-fueled rally in Q1, Chinese stocks came under pressure in April due to exacerbated tensions with the US but still ended the period positively. This was largely driven by Chinese authorities’ supportive macro policy tone and signs of de-escalating tensions in late April, which spurred a partial recovery in Chinese equities. More recently, the US and China agreed on a 90-day pause and a reduction of tariffs on each other's imports, further easing sentiments and providing support to risk assets.

Broad fixed income markets fared better than equities year-to-date but also experienced heightened yield swings. US Treasury yields declined in Q1 due to recessionary fears and fell further in early April following the Liberation Day tariff announcements, before reversing course later in the month as investors reassessed the heightened risk of an economic slowdown.

After remaining tight for the majority of Q1, credit spreads sold off sharply amid a global risk-off tone – with high-yield spreads widening more than investment-grade – but tightened towards the end of April in positive territory. All this market volatility and policy uncertainty have pushed gold to new record highs, though prices have stabilised more recently.

Source: BlackRock, performance commentary as of 16 May 2025.

Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive Portfolios

Performance Commentary

The multi-asset models delivered positive absolute performance in April, though year-to-date results are mixed, with more conservative profiles showing greater resilience amid volatile risk assets. The models have underperformed their respective benchmarks year-to-date.

Broadly speaking, BlackRock’s equity exposures detracted from performance year-to-date in absolute terms. US equities were the most significant detractor over the period, as tariff shocks fueled concerns about slower growth and rising inflation. Their allocation to the IT sector, on the other hand, helped capture part of the tech rebound towards the end of April.

European equities contributed positively to absolute returns but detracted from relative performance year-to-date. While BlackRock entered 2025 underweighting European equities, they added back some exposure during their February reoptimisation, driven by the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and attractive relative valuations across the region.

Separately, Japanese equities were supported by positive developments in US-Japan trade negotiations. Within emerging markets, Chinese equities came under pressure in April, though year-to-date performance remained positive.

BlackRock’s fixed income exposures delivered positive performance in both April and year-to-date. While long-term US Treasuries came under pressure in April amid tariff-related headlines, medium- to long-term bonds were key contributors to year-to-date gains as investors reassessed the risks of slow economic growth. US mortgage-backed securities also posted gains for the month and emerged as one of the key contributors to performance year-to-date. In BlackRock’s most recent rebalance they favoured high-yield bonds, which supported performance across both periods.

Given elevated market volatility, BlackRock maintained their gold exposure during their February reoptimisation, which proved to be a key contributor to performance in both April and year-to-date. Their allocation to inflation-linked bonds (TIPs) were also additive over both periods, benefiting from ongoing inflation risk from broad-based tariffs.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 30 Apr 2025. Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* Inception date for Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive portfolios is 31 Dec 2014.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/world equity index until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/world equity index EUR/GBP hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

Key takeaways

• BlackRock is reducing their equity overweight from 3% to 1.5%, maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance as they steer through market volatility.
• More diversified exposures within equities across US, Europe, Japan and emerging markets. BlackRock particularly favours Japanese yen exposures for its safe-haven characteristics.
• Reducing investment-grade and high-yield bonds. BlackRock prefers trimming portfolio risk, and the recent recovery of the asset class means there is potentially less room for spreads to tighten further.
• Increasing inflation hedges. Broad-based tariffs (despite being partially delayed for now) and potential stimulus present inflationary risks, underscoring the need to build in more inflation protection.

US President Trump’s tariff policies have recently dominated headlines, with reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April coming in at a larger magnitude than initial expectations and sparking sharp market reactions. After experiencing extreme levels of tariff-induced volatility, markets have relatively stabilised with some upward momentum following progress in negotiations between the US and other countries. That said, the market remains fluid with various factors at play, requiring BlackRock to stay nimble and flexible in their portfolio management. They are reducing their equity overweight from 3% to 1.5%, maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance as they steer through market volatility. 

Within equities, BlackRock is reducing their US exposures while keeping a mild overweight position. They believe there could be some adverse impacts from tariffs, as indicated by softening employment data, such as fewer job openings and more layoffs since the early April. Persistent inflation could also potentially reduce the number of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Within the asset class, they are maintaining their allocation to the IT sector, where recent earnings and forward guidance have remained broadly constructive.

Elsewhere, BlackRock favours Japanese equities, through which they can obtain exposure to Japanese yen, which has demonstrated safe-haven characteristics during times of uncertainty. They are also further diversifying their exposures outside of the US, including Europe and emerging markets. Specifically, they have a small overweight on emerging markets, as evidenced by signs of improved earnings data following positive outcomes in the US-China trade talks.

On the fixed income side, BlackRock remains neutral in duration, while having less conviction in credit fixed income, including both investment-grade and high-yield bonds. They prefer trimming portfolio risk, and the recent recovery of the asset class means there is potentially less room for spreads to tighten further. They are maintaining their allocation in emerging market bonds.

BlackRock maintains a basket of diversifiers to achieve returns beyond traditional stocks and bonds. In particular, they continue to hold gold as a diversifier, which has performed strongly year-to-date amid heightened geopolitical risk. They are adding to TIPs as broad-based tariffs (despite being partially delayed for now) and potential stimulus present inflationary risks, underscoring the need to build in more inflation protection.

Very Aggressive Portfolio

Performance Commentary

The equity model delivered positive performance in April but posted negative returns year-to-date. It underperformed its benchmark year-to-date.

US equities were the most significant detractors year-to-date, as tariff shocks sparked concerns about slower growth and higher inflation. BlackRock’s allocation to the IT sector, on the other hand, helped capture part of the tech rebound towards the end of April.

European equities contributed positively to absolute returns but detracted from relative performance year-to-date. While BlackRock entered 2025 underweighting European equities, they added back some exposure during their February reoptimisation, driven by the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and attractive relative valuations across the region.

Separately, Japanese equities were supported by positive developments in US-Japan trade negotiations. Within emerging markets, Chinese equities came under pressure in April, though year-to-date performance remained positive.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 30 Apr 2025. Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* Inception date for Very Aggressive portfolio is 31 Oct 2016.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/world equity index until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/world equity index EUR/GBP hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

US President Trump’s tariff policies have recently dominated headlines, with reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April coming in at a larger magnitude than initial expectations and sparking sharp market reactions. After experiencing extreme levels of tariff-induced volatility, markets have relatively stabilised with some upward momentum following progress in negotiations between the US and other countries. That said, the market remains fluid with various factors at play, requiring BlackRock to stay nimble and flexible in their portfolio management.

BlackRock is reducing their US exposures while keeping a mild overweight position. They believe there could be some adverse impacts from tariffs, as indicated by softening employment data, such as fewer job openings and more layoffs since the early April. Persistent inflation could also potentially reduce the number of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Within the asset class, BlackRock is maintaining the allocation in minimum volatility as a shock absorber. Simultaneously, they are increasing their allocation to the IT sector to reflect a cautiously optimistic stance with higher equity beta, as recent earnings and forward guidance have in the sector remained broadly constructive. They also expect continued adoption of AI by companies for cost reduction and improved efficiency.

Elsewhere, BlackRock favours Japanese equities, through which they can obtain exposure to Japanese yen, which has demonstrated safe-haven characteristics during times of uncertainty. They are also further diversifying their exposures outside of the US, including Europe and emerging markets. Specifically, they have a small overweight on emerging markets, as evidenced by signs of improved earnings data following positive outcomes in the US-China trade talks.

Source: BlackRock, performance commentary as of 30 Apr 2025. Rebalance date is 22 May 2025.

This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial advisor know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.

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