When is Quadruple Witching? Understanding Its Impact on the Stock Market

Quadruple Witching (also known as "Quadruple Witching Day") refers to the date once every quarter when four types of derivative products expire simultaneously. It’s a significant event that often sends ripples through the US stock market. When do these Quadruple Witching dates fall? How do they influence market movements? And what do the historical Quadruple Witching price statistics tell us? StashAway breaks it down for you. 

What is Quadruple Witching? 

Quadruple Witching is the date when four different classes of financial derivatives expire on the same day in the US market. Traditionally, these include stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. When these instruments expire at the same time, it triggers a surge in hedging, closing of positions, and "rolling over" of contracts. This massive influx of orders drives up trading volume and short-term volatility—hence the name "Quadruple Witching." 

Institutional investors and market makers typically begin adjusting their positions in the days leading up to Quadruple Witching. This involves closing out expiring contracts or “rolling” them over to the next maturity month. For retail investors, failing to proactively close positions can lead to the automatic exercise of physical delivery or exercisable contracts on the expiry date, potentially creating additional cash flow pressure.

Quadruple Witching occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year, marking a major milestone for the quarterly settlement of index futures and options. While single stock futures have ceased trading in the US market since 2022—meaning it is technically now 'Triple Witching'—the media and market participants still habitually refer to these high-volatility settlement days as Quadruple Witching.

The Settlement Mechanism of Quadruple Witching

The process typically unfolds across three layers:

• Last Trading Day: Before the market closes on the Quadruple Witching itself, options and futures can still be traded. Investors use this time to close, roll, or adjust their positions, leading to a flood of orders.
• Final Settlement Phase: After the market closes, the exchange calculates the settlement price based on a predetermined methodology. This usually involves using the index or underlying asset price from a specific trading window as a benchmark to determine whether options are in-the-money and to calculate the final profit and loss of futures contracts. 
• Cash or Physical Delivery: Once settlement is complete, any stock or cash differences resulting from the exercise or closing of positions will be credited or debited to the investor’s account.

Quadruple Witching Dates: The Next 10 Years 

To find the Quadruple Witching dates, simply mark the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Below are the projected dates for the next decade (US Eastern Time):

Note: In Hong Kong time, these events occur from approximately 9:30 PM to 4:00 AM. If you hold US index or stock options, take note of the potential liquidity shifts during these windows.

Quadruple Witching Impact on the Stock Market 

The Quadruple Witching impact is felt primarily across three areas: volume, volatility, and short-term price action.

A Significant Surge in Volume 

On Quadruple Witching Day, four classes of derivatives expire simultaneously. This forces investors to consolidate actions—such as closing positions, exercising options, rolling over contracts, or establishing new ones—which directly amplifies trading volume. Historical data indicates that volume on these days often surges by more than 50% compared to a typical session, frequently marking it as one of the highest-volume days of the quarter, or even the year1.

For short-term traders, this spike in volume signals enhanced liquidity and deeper order books, offering the potential to execute trades with tighter bid-ask spreads. However, this comes with the inherent risk of slippage. Entering or exiting the market via market orders during high-volatility windows can lead to executions at unfavourable prices due to sudden price gaps. Consequently, many professional investors prioritise limit orders on Quadruple Witching Day and modestly shorten their holding periods to mitigate the impact of abrupt market swings on their profit and loss.

Heightened Volatility and "Tug-of-War" Price Action 

Multiple studies indicate that when measured by volatility indices, the average volatility during 'Witching Week' is typically 10% to 20% higher than a standard week, with fluctuations becoming increasingly pronounced as the settlement date approaches1. The most intense volatility generally occurs during the final hour of the trading session, where the concentrated movement of capital leads to a dramatic 'tug-of-war' in price action2.

However, heightened volatility does not necessarily equate to a massive market rally or a sharp crash; rather, it often manifests as indices or individual stocks swinging rapidly within a narrow range. For those invested in leveraged products or short-term option strategies, even these minor price movements are amplified by leverage, causing profit and loss to swing violently in a short period. As a result, most seasoned investors place an even greater emphasis on risk management during Quadruple Witching week.

Short-term Price Instability 

Historical performance statistics show that average returns on Quadruple Witching Day tend to be slightly lower than on standard trading days. While the overall performance leans toward the weaker side, there is no fixed pattern indicating a guaranteed market sell-off3. Some backtesting results further suggest that indices often experience a moderate upward trend in the days leading up to the event; however, profit-taking or short-term corrections are more frequent on the settlement day and the following week—particularly in March, June, and September4.

That said, the intensity of price volatility varies significantly across different years and quarters. While some Quadruple Witching days see notable rallies, others result in sideways movement or narrow-range oscillations5. Ultimately, price action remains driven by macroeconomics, interest rate expectations, corporate earnings, and breaking news. We therefore advise investors against betting on one-directional swings or treating Quadruple Witching as a definitive directional signal. Instead, this day should be viewed as a window of high volatility and volume—an opportunity to prudently adjust positions and manage risk.

Historical Quadruple Witching Price Statistics

By analysing years of data from Quadruple Witching days and weeks6, we can identify the following characteristics:

• On Quadruple Witching Day: Average returns are typically slightly lower than on standard trading days. Volatility tends to be higher, with price action generally remaining neutral or leaning towards the weaker side.
• The Witching Week (Settlement Week): In the days leading up to the settlement, indices often experience a moderate upward trend—a phenomenon that is even more pronounced during bull markets.

Comprehensive Quadruple Witching price statistics show that the frequency of gains and losses is split roughly 50/50, with no historical evidence of extreme market crashes or surges tied solely to the event. Therefore, Quadruple Witching is not synonymous with a 'Black Friday'; it simply indicates a window where performance may be softer, while volatility and volume are significantly elevated. It should never be interpreted as a fixed or reliable market trend.

Taking the S&P 500 index—the most comprehensive proxy for the US stock market—as an example, data from Yahoo Finance7 shows the following performance on Quadruple Witching days over the past five years:

Short-term Noise vs Long-term Gains: StashAway’s General Investing Portfolios

While Quadruple Witching amplifies volume and volatility, these are essentially short-term "tug-of-wars" that rarely impact long-term financial goals. Instead of worrying about a single day's fluctuations, a more sophisticated approach is to focus on asset allocation and risk management. By maintaining a disciplined, long-term approach, you allow time and compounding to do the heavy lifting in growing your wealth. 

StashAway’s General Investing portfolios are designed for this "long-game" philosophy. Our system doesn't gamble on short-term trends. Instead, it manages a globally diversified ETF portfolio within your chosen risk level to seek higher risk-adjusted returns.

With StashAway’s General Investing portfolios, you can:

• Invest Based on Risk: Choose your StashAway Risk Index (SRI). Our system automatically rebalances to keep your risk constant.
• Competitive Returns: Over the past three years of economic uncertainty, our portfolios have delivered an average return of 8.1%, outperforming benchmarks of 7.2% at similar risk levels.
• 24/7 Intelligent Monitoring: Our ERAA® framework monitors the macro environment around the clock, ensuring your strategy isn't derailed by temporary events like Quadruple Witching.
• Smart Diversification: By diversifying across multiple asset classes and global markets through ETFs, we mitigate the impact of any single market or event on your total assets. Simultaneously, we leverage lower expense ratios to optimise your long-term returns.

Even with the 'Witching Week' fluctuations, these movements are merely short-term noise for a well-structured, risk-managed, and long-term oriented StashAway General Investing portfolio. By understanding your risk appetite and remaining committed to your long-term financial goals—or by letting StashAway’s automated risk management work for you—you can capture higher long-term returns without the need for constant market monitoring. With us, Quadruple Witching is no longer something you need to worry about. 

Sources:

1. Discovery Alert, "Quad Witching Day: Market Volatility & Trading Strategies"https://discoveryalert.com.au/quad-witching-day-impact-2025-markets-volatility/

2. tastylive, "What is Quadruple Witching? Quad Witching Dates 2025"

https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/quadruple-witching

3. EconStor, "Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/303984/1/10.1080_23322039.2023.2182016.pdf

4. Yahoo Finance, "What Quadruple Witching Expiration Means for Stocks"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quadruple-witching-expiration-means-stocks-110100126.html

5. Reuters, "Quadruple witching day is not that scary for markets"

https://www.reuters.com/article/business/quadruple-witching-day-is-not-that-scary-for-markets-idUSKBN1452D1/

6. QuantifiedStrategies.com, "Quad Witching Day – Bullish or Bearish? (Quadruple Witching Backtest)"

https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/quadruple-witching/

7. Yahoo Finance, "S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?period1=1584662400&period2=1764122013