StashAway’s H1 2025 Returns

As we shared in our Mid-Year Outlook, the first half of 2025 was marked by a reversal in the “US exceptionalism” trade, with global investors trimming concentrated exposures to US assets – with the “Liberation Day” market shock adding fuel to this fire.

In the weeks after Liberation Day, global stocks rebounded sharply as growth fears surrounding US trade policy eased, and ended the first half up 10.6%. Meanwhile, gold continued to shine, and global bonds remained resilient as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties fueled demand for these assets.

Through these shifting dynamics, our flagship General Investing portfolios powered by StashAway have continued to deliver steady returns. They returned between 5.4% to 10.8% (or 9.3% on average) in USD terms in H1, outperforming traditional equity-bond benchmarks.

Importantly, they also managed downside risk well. During the period of market volatility following Liberation Day, our most aggressive, equity-focused portfolio (SRI 36%) saw a peak drawdown of 13%, smaller than the 16% decline seen in global equities. Similarly, in H1 our most conservative, bond-focused portfolio experienced a maximum drawdown of just 1.5% versus 2.2% for global government bonds.

This consistent performance is driven by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA®) investment framework, which manages macroeconomic risk while ensuring that your portfolios remain diversified across global equities, bonds, and gold.

Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed in H1:

• General Investing portfolios powered by StashAway
• General Investing portfolios powered by BlackRock
• Responsible Investing portfolios
• Thematic Portfolios

General Investing portfolios powered by StashAway

StashAway’s General Investing (GI) portfolios delivered solid, positive returns in H1. The portfolios returned 9.3% on average in USD terms compared to an average benchmark return of 9.5% in USD terms. Over the past 12 months, the portfolios also posted strong absolute returns across all risk levels, with gains of 12.9% on average in USD terms versus 14% for their respective same-risk benchmarks in USD terms and 12.5% for a traditional equity/bond-only benchmark.

Broad diversification continued to support portfolio performance in H1

The first half saw significant market volatility around Trump’s policies – not just the sharp sell-off during the Liberation Day announcements, but also from the start of the year as he unveiled plans for spending cuts and trade tariffs. While markets have since recovered, these events highlight why globally diversified portfolios – across and within asset classes – remain crucial for investors.

As we shared in Q1, our GI portfolios, guided by our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA®) investment framework, are designed to adapt as economic conditions evolve. By spreading exposure across different countries, sectors, and asset classes, the portfolios aim to stay resilient in volatile markets while remaining positioned to capture growth opportunities when they arise.

A reminder: as of April 2024, our portfolio benchmarks include a structural allocation to gold, recognising its proven role as a defensive and diversifying asset. Gold typically performs well during market volatility and uncertainty, often moving independently from stocks and bonds. The Liberation Day market turbulence demonstrated this clearly.

Chart 2 below shows how adding gold to our benchmarks has reduced volatility and improved risk-adjusted returns across all portfolio types, with particularly strong benefits for lower-risk portfolios. In H1, our gold-inclusive benchmarks (navy blue) delivered superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional equity-bond benchmarks (grey). The practical impact is that for every unit of risk taken, our GI portfolios generated 0.4 additional units of return compared to traditional equity-bond portfolios.

Looking ahead to H2, markets may take a breather after a strong first half that saw investors shifting beyond the US. While the structural forces of fiscal dominance, AI advancements and Trump policies, or “FAT”, will continue to shape the medium-term outlook, near-term shifts may reflect seasonal patterns and tactical market moves. 

Rather than seeing a potential pause as a reason to pull back, investors can view it as an opportunity to add to diversified portfolios that are positioned for long-term themes like non-US growth, AI-driven innovation, and gold’s defensive role. Using periods of volatility to invest can be more effective than trying to jump in after markets have already rallied.

(For more on our outlook for H2, see 2025 Mid-Year Outlook: A summer timeout?)

Gold continued to shine bright amid geopolitical, fiscal risks

Gold continued to perform strongly in H1, rising 24% over the period and 40% over the past 12 months. This strong performance contributed around 0.8 to 2.6 percentage points to our GI portfolios’ returns, underscoring gold’s role as both a portfolio diversifier and a source of returns during periods of elevated macro uncertainty.

However, gold has been chopping around since mid-April. This likely reflects a combination of profit-taking after record highs, lower market volatility reducing the urgency to add gold as a hedge, and delayed Fed rate cuts dampening momentum. While the underlying drivers supporting gold remain intact, these factors have led to a period of consolidation for the asset class.

Looking ahead, while elevated positioning could leave gold vulnerable to a near-term pullback – “long gold” remains the most crowded trade in the June 2025 Bank of America Fund Manager Survey – the longer-term outlook remains solid. Central banks continue to add to their gold reserves, and concerns over rising US government debt are prompting investors to look for alternatives to Treasuries. Beyond its role as a hedge against geopolitical risks, these structural drivers could make gold an increasingly important part of diversified portfolios over time.

Global equities took the lead as investors rotated away from the US

Within equities, the rotation away from “US exceptionalism” toward opportunities elsewhere was a defining theme in H1. The first half of the year saw global ex-US equities diverge from US equities, outperforming before and after the “Liberation Day” selloff. As Chart 3 below shows, global equities excluding the US returned 17.7% in H1, while US equities gained 6.2%.

Our allocations to these markets were the biggest contributors to performance in our higher-risk, equity-focused portfolios. For example, the ETF tracking world equities ex-US contributed up to 2.5 percentage points to total returns. That said, select US exposures were also key contributors to performance, especially technology – where AI remains a durable theme – and aerospace and defense – which have benefited from persistent geopolitical tensions.

Looking ahead, non-US equities could continue to draw investor interest as long-term growth opportunities emerge across global markets. Within the US, select sectors may still do well, particularly companies harnessing AI to grow revenues and improve efficiency as the technology’s impact spreads beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Global exposure also supported ERAA®’s fixed income allocations

In fixed income, the performance of ERAA®’s bond allocations was supported by a mix of factors:

• Allocations to ultra-short US Treasury bills continued to deliver attractive yields of around 4.2-4.3% with minimal risk. 
• Meanwhile, global aggregate bonds, including investment-grade government and corporate bonds, posted solid gains as yields fell more sharply in Europe, helping global bonds outperform their US counterparts.
• Within credit, global high yield outperformed as falling rates, attractive yields, and resilient corporate and economic fundamentals supported strong total returns.
• The continued decline in the USD – at 11% over H1 – also boosted USD returns from foreign bonds denominated in major currencies like the euro and yen.

Put together, steady yields from ultra-short-duration, attractive income from high yield, price gains from longer-duration global bonds, and a weaker dollar benefiting non-US exposure all supported performance. All of this highlights the importance of diversification even within fixed income.

Looking ahead, global bonds remain well-positioned if central banks continue to ease policy in the months ahead. In the US, meanwhile, the Fed’s caution around cutting rates and ongoing fiscal pressures may keep short-term yields elevated for longer, and also limits the scope for gains in longer-term Treasuries.

General Investing portfolios powered by BlackRock

The General Investing portfolios powered by BlackRock also posted solid returns.

 In H1, they posted 6.6% on average in USD terms, versus 7.1% for their benchmarks in USD terms. Over the past 12 months, they returned 11.3% on average in USD terms, versus 12.1% for their benchmarks in USD terms.

Here’s a detailed commentary on the latest reoptimisation by BlackRock.

Responsible Investing portfolios

The Responsible Investing (RI) portfolios – which optimise for both long-term returns and ESG impact – delivered positive returns in H1. For the year to end-June, they posted 8.3% on average in USD terms. That compares with 9.5% on average for their same-risk benchmarks in USD terms.

Over the past 12 months, they returned 12.6% on average in USD terms. That compares with 15.5% on average for their same-risk benchmarks in USD terms.

As with our GI portfolios, our RI portfolios benefited from ERAA®'s broad diversification, with contributions from gold, global bonds, and equities. This helped navigate the volatility in early 2025 – and capture upside as markets rebounded after the “Liberation Day” shock. Gold, in particular, continued to play its role as both a hedge and a source of returns.

While ESG-screened US and global large-cap stocks – core components in RI portfolios – saw gains, a heavier US tilt tempered performance amid the global shift away from US equities, especially in higher-risk portfolios. In our lower-risk portfolios, exposures to global, green, and high-yield bonds were also key to supporting returns.

Thematic Portfolios

Thematic assets proved resilient in the first half of 2025 despite market volatility from events like DeepSeek's AI shakeup in January and April's Liberation Day.

Our Technology Enablers portfolio posted solid gains across blockchain and cybersecurity themes, while Future of Consumer Tech benefited from particularly strong performance in the gaming sector. Healthcare Innovation showed mixed results as medical devices outperformed while biotech faced headwinds. Our Environment and Cleantech portfolio delivered the strongest performance in H1, driven by rapidly rising demand for nuclear power.

The performance across themes highlights the importance of taking a long-term view – while market cycles can create short-term volatility, the mega-trends these portfolios capture will continue to develop over multi-year time horizons.

Technology Enablers

The Technology Enablers portfolios posted returns of 11.1% on average in USD terms for the year to end-June. Over the past 12 months, they were up 25% on average in USD terms.

The tech sector saw an eventful first half of 2025, from DeepSeek's debut to ongoing concerns on AI valuations. Blockchain emerged as the standout contributor as crypto infrastructure benefited from renewed interest in Bitcoin and stablecoins in recent months. Cybersecurity also posted solid returns, with companies like CrowdStrike seeing increased business spending on digital security. Looking ahead, the continued buildout of AI infrastructure will provide support for these themes.

Future of Consumer Tech

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios saw returns of 11.4% on average in USD terms for the year to end-June. Over the past 12 months, they were up 24.2% on average in USD terms.

Consumer technology themes showed strong momentum in H1. The video game and esports sub-sector continued to be the standout performer, driven by growth across the global gaming industry (think Nintendo or Tencent). Future mobility also contributed, with continued interest in electric vehicles (EVs) and buildout in EV-related infrastructure supporting companies across the value chain. As AI integration becomes increasingly central to consumer experiences, these companies are well-positioned to capture continued trends in innovation and adoption.

Healthcare Innovation

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios posted returns of 1.3% on average in USD terms for the year to end-June. Over the past 12 months, they were up 0.6% on average in USD terms.

Healthcare themes saw a divergence across sub-sectors in the first half. Biotech was the primary drag, likely related to issues tied to drug approval processes in the US, alongside pressure from tariffs. In pharmaceuticals, strong earnings from major players like Eli Lilly continue to support the sub-sector. Medical devices provided the strongest support despite potential tariff impacts – possibly related to their more inelastic demand. For the healthcare sector more broadly, potential for increased M&A activity and increasingly attractive valuations suggest potential for upside – especially if regulatory and tariff uncertainties ease.

Environment and Cleantech

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios saw returns of 12.8% on average in USD terms for the year to end-June. Over the past 12 months, they were up 9.3% on average in USD terms.

The cleantech sector delivered the strongest performance among our thematic portfolios for the first half of the year. Our exposure to uranium miners led gains, benefiting from a rapid rise in nuclear power demand as tech giants announced major commitments for AI data centers. Smart grid infrastructure provided additional support. The structural shift toward nuclear power as a powerful, reliable source of clean energy, combined with global infrastructure investment, positions these themes favourably for the long term.

Disclaimers:

Model portfolio returns are expressed in gross terms before fees, withholding taxes, and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.

Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.

Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice.

This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.

This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.

This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial advisor know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.

For StashAway General Investing portfolios that are powered by BlackRock, BlackRock provides StashAway with non-binding asset allocation guidance. StashAway manages and provides these portfolios to you, meaning BlackRock does not provide any service or product to you, nor has BlackRock considered the suitability of its asset allocations against your individual needs, objectives, and risk tolerance. As such, the asset allocations that BlackRock provides do not constitute investment advice, or an offer to sell or buy any securities.

BlackRock® is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. and its affiliates (“BlackRock”) and is used under license. BlackRock is not affiliated with StashAway and therefore makes no representations or warranties regarding the advisability of investing in any product or service offered by StashAway. BlackRock has no obligation or liability in connection with the operation, marketing, trading or sale of such product or service nor does BlackRock have any obligation or liability to any client or customer of StashAway.